Tsunami in full force

Prof Josef Lauri, mathematician, writes:

The epicurve now certainly shows that this wave is not abating yet, as the first graphic clearly shows. One can see how the three waves of this second phase are dwarfing the first phase we had, starting 6th March.

But perhaps it is better now to start looking at the trajectory of the number of active cases, which is what our health system has to face.  This number has doubled in the last eight days. It is now clear that our task now is not only to keep the number of daily new cases from increasing, but we have to reduce these numbers to a much lower level.

To ascertain how alarming this rate is we would need to know not only the number of cases in Intensive Care but also how many beds in such units are available. This is a statistic which is regularly made public in Italy.

Prof JOsef Lauri

Otherwise, since the daily new cases are far outstripping the number of recoveries, the new cases will have a cumulative effect on the number of active cases. Therefore these would keep increasing at this fast rate. To ascertain how alarming this rate is we would need to know not only the number of cases in Intensive Care but also how many beds in such units are available. This is a statistic which is regularly made public in Italy.  

The second graphic shows a time series model which gives a very good fit for the number of active cases. If this model is set to make allowance for drift, it forecasts that there will be over 1300 active cases tomorrow, which is not good news unless something drastic happens to reduce the spread of the virus.