Johnson and Brexit; what are the odds?

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With recent news showing the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit, there are growing intentions to oust Boris Johnson as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

His strategy to pull the UK out of the EU on 31st October, with or without a deal, continues to polarise the Conservative Party and the country at large. The opposition however seems to be united on one front; to remove Johnson from position.

According to the online betting odds comparison service Oddschecker’, people are betting that Boris Johnson is likely to stay in office as PM for at least another year. According to Oddschecker, there’s a 4:1 chance of him leaving office in 2019 (around 20%).

Moreover, there is a 7:2 chance Boris will leave office in 2020 or stay until 2023 or later. Both those scenarios have a 22% chance of coming true.

The probability of a No-deal Brexit

Metro News added that the odds also indicate slightly against a no-deal Brexit happening. Oddschecker quote odds of 11:17 (approx. 61% probability) that a no-deal Brexit won’t happen, meaning the Withdrawal Agreement is ratified, Article 50 is extended beyond 2019 or Article 50 is revoked.

The probability of the UK leaving without a deal is around 43.5% (13:10).


Who would take over the PM role?

Jeremy Corbyn (Leader of the Labour Party and Opposition) is the bookies’ favourite to become next Prime Minister (11:4), followed by Liberal Democrat Party leader Jo Swinson,  (16:1).

Read: Johnson delivers turbocharged maiden speech as PM in Commons

Read: Incoming EU chief von der Leyen says ‘we don’t want a hard Brexit’

Boris Johnson recently took up the role of Leader of the UK Conservative Party and Prime Minister of the government, last month.

His election to the leadership has been controversial owing to his direct involvement in campaigning for the UK’s exit from the European Union as well as for pushing a No-Deal agenda.

EU leaders were largely unimpressed by the fighting talk of the Prime Minister on Brexit, during his first Prime Minister’s Questions.