Numbers are risking health system breakdown

Monday and Tuesday’s number of new cases give some hope that this third wave, much larger than any before it, might be abating.

But we would only be grateful for very small comforts if this means that the numbers are stabilising as they are, in the low hundreds or the nineties, because the figures to keep an eye on are now the number of active cases. If the daily new cases keep outstripping the number of recoveries, the active cases will continue to increase at a fast rate since these cases accumulate. The time series of active cases which is depicted here, forecasting 1579 active cases for tomorrow, shows what can happen if this trend is sustained. It is these cases and their severity which risk breaking down any health system.