Coronavirus: What to expect

Face masks are displayed on a shelf before an exhibition at the National Museum amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Prague, Czech Republic, May 21, 2020. The sign reads: "We stick together". REUTERS/David W Cerny

With all the numbers and predictions being touted about the COVID-19 pandemic, Newsbook.com.mt sought the advice of mathematician Prof Josef Lauri of the University of Malta. Numbers are his area of expertise and he will be sending Newsbook.com.mt readers a daily assessment and statistical preview in two pictures.

Following two consecutive days registering 48 and 47 new cases respectively, the model determined that a two-day moving average fitted the data best. This resulted in a more optimistic prediction of 47 for tomorrow, but the 95% prediction interval is still very wide (between 33 and 62).”

The second graph shows the epicurve with a two-day interval. The time between successive peaks in an epicurve is often taken to be an indication of the incubation period, which very often there is a two to four two-day periods, possibly indicating an incubation period of four to eight days. 

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